The last time, the UFC put on a pay-per-view event, it was a fever dream of star power and expert match making. However, this time the premier brand in mixed martial arts didn’t exactly work towards a similar goal.
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That being said, the return to Brazil for UFC 301 does offer some action potential and enough countrymen on the card to engage the crowd at Rio de Janeiro’s Jeunesse Arena. The card is anchored by the flyweight title fight between Alexandre Pantoja and Steve Erceg along with the return of the legendary Jose Aldo.
Here are some bold UFC 301 predictions.
Alexandre Pantoja (27-5) vs. Steve Erceg (12-1)
In less than a year Steve Erceg went from a promising prospect in the Australian regional scene making his Octagon debut to being a title challenger. As a proven submission threat with quickly developing striking skills, this could potentially be a tough match-up for Alexandre Pantoja.
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However, Pantoja represents a massive leap in competition for “Astro Boy.” Beyond being the superior athlete, his overall skill set is far more refined and battle-tested against the best at 125 pounds. Look for “The Cannibal to retain his belt by proving more effective over the long haul.
Prediction: Pantoja by Decision
Jose Aldo (31-8) vs. Jonathan Martinez (19-4)
Rising bantamweight contender Jonathan Martinez has the unenviable task of standing across from the revered Jose Aldo in his home country. This is set up to be either a triumphant homecoming for the featherweight GOAT or a sobering reminder that Father Time is undefeated.
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It’s hard to ignore the mileage he’s accrued over the years, but aside from the missed opportunity to finally pair him with Dominic Cruz, these are the ideal conditions for an Aldo return. Martinez is very likely to aggressively engage him in a stand-up battle, setting the stage for a vintage tactical “Scarface” performance with or without his criminally overlooked wrestling capabilities.
Perhaps it would be a different story if Aldo was coming off of the couch. But in the two years since he lost to Merab Dvalishvili, he went 2-0-1 as a pro boxer. Considering that and the fact he was still clearly one of the best in the division after losing a decision to the current number-one contender, there’s probably still tread left on the tires.
Prediction: Aldo by Decision
Anthony Smith (37-19) vs. Vitor Petrino (11-0)
For Anthony Smith, this feels like the textbook definition of gatekeeping. The former title challenger has either opened the door for or denied hopeful contenders looking to aim at the light heavyweight strap. Unranked Vitor Petrino’s undefeated record and finishing abilities make him a name to watch in a thin division.
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The question here is what does “Lionheart” have left after a 16-year career, going 1-4 in his last 5, and suffering a horrific knockout this past December. With the full support of the crowd, the Brazilian could find himself in the rankings at Smith’s expense.
Prediction: Petrino by KO, Round 3
Michel Pereira (30-11) vs. Ihor Potieria (21-5)
Michel Pereira’s move up to middleweight has gone remarkably well so far. With just 2:07 of cage time, he has put together two memorable finishes. Meanwhile, Ihor Potieria’s first foray at 185 pounds, a decision win, was marred by a failure on the scale.
The result of this fight might do a lot to prove the existence of the MMA Gods. The last time Potieria fought on Brazilian soil he made no friends when he sent Mauricio “Shogun” Rua into retirement and appeared to mock the legend with a celebration inspired by his “Duelist” nickname.
Clutch the holy book of your choice and look to the heavens.
Prediction: Pereira by KO, Round 1
Paul Craig (17-7-1) vs. Caio Borralho (15-1)
This is a big opportunity for Caio Borralho. The Contender Series alum snuck his way into the rankings late last year but Paul Craig will be his first opponent with name value. While Craig’s loss to Brendan Allen set him back, it’s still not quite clear what he has to offer the middleweight division aside from his trademark chaotic and reckless approach to submission grappling.
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Borralho has repeatedly shown that he will sacrifice thrills for a win. If he keeps that approach he should get his hand raised here. Unless the “Bearjew” can force him into some awkward moment on the floor, Borralho should be able to earn a slow-paced victory.
Prediction: Borralho by Decision
UFC 301 Predictions
Main Card
- Alexandre Pantoja (-245) vs. Steve Erceg (+200): Pantoja by Decision
- José Aldo (-120) vs. Jonathan Martinez (+100): Aldo by Decision
- Anthony Smith (+320) vs. Vitor Petrino (-410): Petrino by KO, Round 3
- Michel Pereira (-278) vs. Ihor Potieria (-400): Pereira by KO, Round 1
- Paul Craig (+285) vs. Caio Borralho (-360): Borralho by Decision
Preliminary Card
- Joanderson Brito (-166) vs. Jack Shore (+140): Brito by Submission, Round 2
- Karolina Kowalkiewicz (+245) vs. Iasmin Lucindo (-305): Kowalkiewicz by Decision
- Elves Brener (+190) vs. Myktybek Orolabai (-230): Orolabai by Decision
- Jean Silva (-130) vs. William Gomis (+110): Gomis by Decision
- Joaquim Silva (+150) vs. Drakkar Klose (-180): Klose by Decision
- Mauricio Ruffy (-148) vs. Jaime Mullarkey (+124): Ruffy by KO, Round 3
- Dione Barbosa (-218) vs. Ernesta Kareckaite (+180): Barbosa by Decision
- Ismael Bonfim (-395) vs. Vinc Pichel (+310): Bonfim by TKO, Round 2
- Alessandro Costa (-155) vs. Kevin Borjas (+130): Costa by Decision
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